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Uncovered: The Bookmakers' Margins in Golf Betting

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers make profits, regardless of who wins in a sporting event?


Let's break it down using a simple example: Imagine a scenario where four players have an equal chance of winning, giving each a 25% probability.


Ordinarily, you'd expect odds of 3/1 for each player, reflecting their chances.


Odds

Probability

Player 1

3/1

25%

Player 2

3/1

25%

Player 3

3/1

25%

Player 4

3/1

25%



100%



However, savvy bookies tweak the odds slightly, creating a cumulative probability of more than 100%. This ensures they turn a profit, no matter the outcome.



Odds

Probability

Player 1

2/1

33%

Player 2

2/1

33%

Player 3

2/1

33%

Player 4

2/1

33%



133%


In our example, the margin or over-round is 33%, demonstrating the bookies' clever strategy.


Digging into actual data, GolfTipsters has been tracking odds for PGA and European Tour events since 2016. The findings reveal an average margin of a hefty 42.5%.


To put it into perspective, in 68% of the events we tracked, the margin falls between 35.5% and 49.5%. Despite such odds stacked against punters, there's still room for smart betting strategies.



How can you outsmart the bookies? 


A savvy punter can turn the tables despite their significant margins by making consistently high-value bets. In our hypothetical golf market, where odds adjust based on betting patterns, identifying undervalued players becomes the key to success.


Imagine Player 3 becoming undervalued with a 20% win chance instead of the fair 25%. This 5% difference marks a high-value bet. Consistently spotting such opportunities allows punters to outperform the bookies in the long run.


Read more: How to choose the right bookmaker for golf bets.


How to spot undervalued players? 


The GolfTipsters algorithm reveals how to identify undervalued players, enabling smart punters to outsmart the bookies and secure profitable bets despite their inherent advantages.


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